Audits
Complete audits of well-known rules and strategies, run with the same toolkit and sealed rubric as a paid audit, and published whatever the result. We start with the markets most of our clients trade: stocks, ETFs and bonds.
1
Indicator Audit · Batch 3 · 3 audits · sealed
Moreira & Muir, a low-volatility sector rule and USMV, each judged on its own claim of a better Sharpe ratio. None survives; the best (volatility management) graded D.
Indicator Audit · Batch 2 · 11 audits · sealed
SPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA and the sector SPDRs. None beat its benchmark with statistical support, and none survive Holm’s correction.
Indicator Audit · Batch 1 · 10 audits · sealed
MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Supertrend and six more, with the settings they ship with. None beat holding SPY (10.9% a year).
Sample audit 1
Sharpe 0.77 over 1994–2026, but it trailed buy-and-hold SPY by 1.8% a year and fell further behind in the holdout.
Sample audit 2
The best of 60 settings trailed buy-and-hold SPY by 5.9% a year; its excess Sharpe over buy-and-hold fell from −0.16 in-sample to −0.92 in the holdout.
2
Indicator Audit · Batch 3 · 3 audits · sealed
Faber timing cut drawdowns robustly (43.9% to 14.5%), but it gave up 3.2% a year against the 1.0% declared in advance, so it grades C. None survives.
Indicator Audit · Batch 2 · 3 audits · sealed
SPY, EFA, AGG and IEF. Antonacci’s dual momentum trailed SPY, and the 60/40 bands trailed an unrebalanced 60/40. Faber on Treasuries trailed holding IEF.
3
Indicator Audit · Batch 1 · 10 audits · sealed
None beat holding Bitcoin (70.4% a year over 2015–2026).
On-chain Indicator Audit · 6 audits · sealed
None of the six claims is supported: one was testable and failed, and five fired too rarely after publication for an honest inference.
Sample audit 4 · preregistered and sealed
The built-in default compounded at 2.4% a year against 70.4% for holding Bitcoin.
Sample audit 3
Sharpe 1.47 over 2016–2026, but it still trailed buy-and-hold Bitcoin by 2.6% a year.
These audits analyze public rules on historical data for illustration. They are not recommendations to trade any of these strategies, and a grade is not a prediction. Prices from Yahoo Finance (equities, ETFs and bonds) and Coinbase (Bitcoin); we publish derived statistics only, never raw prices; no redistribution.