{
  "status": "EXPLORATORY, NOT PREREGISTERED; sealed verdicts unchanged",
  "method": "AAFT surrogates of the real forward-return series (independent of the metric by construction), N = 300, seed 20260926; sealed test (2,000 circular shifts) on each surrogate",
  "tests": [
    {
      "id": "C1-MVRV-h90",
      "p_sealed": 0.328335832083958,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.06,
      "p_calibrated": 0.3588039867109635,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-MVRV-h365",
      "p_sealed": 0.16441779110444776,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.05333333333333334,
      "p_calibrated": 0.22259136212624583,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-MVRVZ-h90",
      "p_sealed": 0.3328335832083958,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.08333333333333333,
      "p_calibrated": 0.34219269102990035,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-MVRVZ-h365",
      "p_sealed": 0.1489255372313843,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.08,
      "p_calibrated": 0.2059800664451827,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-SOPR-h90",
      "p_sealed": 0.5132433783108445,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.07666666666666666,
      "p_calibrated": 0.4850498338870432,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-SOPR-h365",
      "p_sealed": 0.3378310844577711,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.12,
      "p_calibrated": 0.4318936877076412,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-RR-h90",
      "p_sealed": 0.12293853073463268,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.09,
      "p_calibrated": 0.16279069767441862,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-RR-h365",
      "p_sealed": 0.0004997501249375312,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.13666666666666666,
      "p_calibrated": 0.12624584717607973,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-STH-h90",
      "p_sealed": 0.0004997501249375312,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.14666666666666667,
      "p_calibrated": 0.09966777408637874,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-STH-h365",
      "p_sealed": 0.22038980509745126,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.29,
      "p_calibrated": 0.3787375415282392,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-PI-h90",
      "p_sealed": 0.7021489255372314,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.07666666666666666,
      "p_calibrated": 0.6445182724252492,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-PI-h365",
      "p_sealed": 0.2813593203398301,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.11333333333333333,
      "p_calibrated": 0.3521594684385382,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-MAYER-h90",
      "p_sealed": 0.7376311844077961,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.06,
      "p_calibrated": 0.6910299003322259,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-MAYER-h365",
      "p_sealed": 0.5817091454272864,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.08,
      "p_calibrated": 0.5083056478405316,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-2YMA-h90",
      "p_sealed": 0.3598200899550225,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.11,
      "p_calibrated": 0.3588039867109635,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-2YMA-h365",
      "p_sealed": 0.0004997501249375312,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.09,
      "p_calibrated": 0.06976744186046512,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-200WMA-h90",
      "p_sealed": 0.20089955022488756,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.05333333333333334,
      "p_calibrated": 0.2823920265780731,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-200WMA-h365",
      "p_sealed": 0.0004997501249375312,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.13,
      "p_calibrated": 0.11960132890365449,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-PUELL-h90",
      "p_sealed": 0.21489255372313842,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.12,
      "p_calibrated": 0.24584717607973422,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-PUELL-h365",
      "p_sealed": 0.10144927536231885,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.07,
      "p_calibrated": 0.10963455149501661,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-S2F-h90",
      "p_sealed": 0.6881559220389805,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.10666666666666667,
      "p_calibrated": 0.6378737541528239,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C1-S2F-h365",
      "p_sealed": 0.7666166916541729,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.13,
      "p_calibrated": 0.7674418604651163,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C2-BOTTOM",
      "p_sealed": 0.02798600699650175,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.1,
      "p_calibrated": 0.07641196013289037,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    },
    {
      "id": "C2-TOP",
      "p_sealed": 0.0769615192403798,
      "size_at_5pct": 0.08333333333333333,
      "p_calibrated": 0.10631229235880399,
      "p_calibrated_holm": 1.0
    }
  ]
}
